| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | USC | 26-42 | 1444.5 | +38.2 | 1482.7 | 5.0% |
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | Eastern Michigan | 27-21 | 1444.5 | +38.2 | 1482.7 | 55.6% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | Cal Poly | 30-20 | 1482.7 | -16.9 | 1465.9 | 82.7% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | Fresno State | 10-26 | 1465.9 | -15.5 | 1450.4 | 24.9% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Hawai'i | 20-16 | 1448.0 | +15.2 | 1463.2 | 49.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Wyoming | 13-16 | 1463.2 | -22.5 | 1440.7 | 61.9% |