| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 14-16 | 1544.6 | -65.0 | 1479.6 | 79.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas | 7-38 | 1479.6 | -3.1 | 1476.5 | 4.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Idaho | 31-28 | 1448.4 | +15.7 | 1464.1 | 59.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Stanford | 29-30 | 1464.1 | +21.5 | 1485.6 | 38.5% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | New Mexico | 35-28 | 1485.6 | +16.1 | 1501.7 | 39.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Wyoming | 28-35 | 1501.7 | -9.7 | 1492.0 | 54.5% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | L | Utah State | 25-30 | 1492.0 | +9.0 | 1501.0 | 42.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 45-38 | 1505.7 | +10.0 | 1515.7 | 48.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Air Force | 16-26 | 1515.7 | -11.9 | 1503.8 | 53.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Nevada | 10-55 | 1503.8 | -93.9 | 1409.9 | 76.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | San Diego State | 3-25 | 1409.9 | -7.5 | 1402.4 | 19.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Fresno State | 14-41 | 1402.4 | -31.4 | 1371.0 | 29.9% |